Full automation of AI R&D will likely occur around 2030 to 2031, which could lead to artificial superintelligence within approximately a year afterward.
Anthropic experienced over 3x quarterly revenue growth in Q1 2026, creating an annualized growth rate of roughly 80x that far exceeded planned compute capacity.
NVIDIA has improved compute performance-per-watt by 1,000,000x over the last 10 years, compared to a 100x increase that Moore's Law alone would have provided.
Joseph Stiglitz argues that standard neoclassical market models fail because real economies are defined by imperfect information, externalities, and incomplete markets, necessitating public institutions, strategic industrial policy, and market regulation to align private incentives with social welfare.
There is approximately a 50% probability that artificial general intelligence matching full human cognitive capability will be developed by roughly 2030.
— Demis Hassabis
27 min of a 2 hr 28 min video·Jul 23, 2025
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